Well, this awards season has been a hot mess.
It was exciting at first. No real frontrunner had emerged during the fall festival season or the bevy of critics awards during the winter. Sure, there were typical festival favorites (Emilia Perez, Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave). There were also scrappy indies (A Real Pain, Sing Sing, The Substance) and booming blockbusters (Wicked, Dune: Part Two). However, no one film had steamrolled its way through the precursors as one usually does. (At least before Anora stunned Hollywood with triple-whammy wins at the Critics Choice, PGA, and DGA.) The air of unpredictability felt abnormal, unsettling, and quite thrilling.
Then, it all went to hell. Mere days after the Golden Globes, wildfires broke out throughout Southern California. The fires ravaged Hollywood-adjacent neighborhoods and destroyed the homes and communities of many in the industry. The tragedy shuttered the awards season for weeks. Several campaign events and award ceremonies were (rightfully) postponed. The Academy also extended the Oscar nomination window. (We’ll return to that.) That sat atop an increasingly volatile discourse. Fervent fanbases campaigned on their contenders’ behalf by tearing their competitors down as much as possible.
And then there is Emilia Perez. Jacques Audiard’s musical about a titular trans woman seeking a new life was the one film that could claim some frontrunner status. However, racist and xenophobic tweets from its Oscar-nominated star Karla Sofía Gascón resurfaced and shocked Hollywood. Her defensive apologies (offered without Netflix’s backing) further imperiled her and her film’s campaigns. It was a spectacular, dispiriting, self-inflicted derailing, especially disappointing given the historic nature of Gascón’s nomination. (She is the first openly transgender actor nominated for an Oscar.) Taken all together, what had been an excitingly unpredictable season curdled into a foul and toxic one. Even the most sluggish awards seasons had better vibes than this one.
As painful as this season has become, there is still joy and intrigue in this year’s nominations. There are 13 first-time Oscar nominees in the acting categories, from Hollywood legends to breakout stars. There are plenty of traditional narratives afoot. Mikey Madison (Anora) and Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) are breakout ingenues. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) is the history-maker returning to awards season. Ralph Fiennes in Conclave is long overdue, while Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), Guy Pearce (The Brutalist), and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) are beloved working actors stepping into the spotlight.
There are, however, some more complex narratives that could shape how the rest of the season nets out. Those are the ones I’m most interested in unpacking. As I say every year, stories govern Hollywood and, therefore, the Oscars. While anything can happen in the next month, these are those narratives that could very well take their nominees to the Dolby Theater stage.
Demi Moore, The Substance: The “Popcorn Actress” Goes Prestige
While Emilia Perez and Anora garnered the most awards-season buzz out of Cannes, Coralie Fargeat’s body horror film The Substance shocked and awed audiences in France. The bloody examination of Hollywood’s aversion to aging was disarming and daring, with a stunning standout performance by Demi Moore. However, as conventional awards wisdom dictated, it was supposed to be too much for the genre-averse Academy. While The Substance steadily wracked up box office receipts and love from critics, it still felt too far-flung for a serious Oscar campaign for some.
That was before Demi Moore won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical. (She bested Gascón, Anora’s Mikey Madison, and Wicked’s Cynthia Erivo.) Moore shared in her acceptance speech that, during her heyday in the 90s, a producer said she was a “popcorn actress.” The insinuation was that, as the lead of box office smashes like Ghost, A Few Good Men, and Indecent Proposal, she wasn’t capable of an awards-worthy performance. (That film run made her Hollywood’s highest-paid actress at one point.) As Moore emotionally recounted, she had internalized that judgment and almost quit acting altogether, until she received the script for The Substance.
The Substance allowed Moore to tap into her natural screen presence and the meta-text of her career. As Elisabeth Sparkle stands in the mirror and looks over her imperfections, Moore conveys the anxiety and exhaustion of maintaining beauty standards. She’s participated in that conversation heavily throughout her career, whether through her roles in Striptease and G.I. Jane or posing nude twice on the cover of Vanity Fair. In Moore’s mirrored reflection, intentional or not, you see that scrutiny’s emotional wear and tear. You empathize with Elisabeth as “the substance” subsumes her life. Ironically, Demi’s “popcorn actress” bonafides, better known as movie star charisma, make her performance all the more interesting.
Moore’s Globes speech tapped the same well Michelle Yeoh did when she won her Best Actress Oscar two years ago. Not only does Moore’s work in The Substance prove that she’s not “past her prime,” it shows that “popcorn acting” is just another industry guardrail stifling potential and opportunity. Fargeat took a chance on Moore and vice versa. That chance allowed Moore to revitalize and re-contextualize her 40-year career in the unlikeliest of ways. Actors of any age still struggling with categorization can relate to that journey. Even for those who feel like The Substance’s bloody end is a bridge too far, Moore’s stake in the ground is easy to rally behind.
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown: The Offbeat Campaigner
In truth, Timothée Chalamet has quite a few narratives in his favor. A Complete Unknown sees the Gen Z stalwart starring as folk music legend Bob Dylan. The Academy adores a transformative biopic performance, and Chalamet’s work exceeds the bill. From voice to demeanor, he disappears into the mythic figure in stunning ways. It’s the cap on a banner yer for Chalamet, riding high off the rollover success of Wonka and his other Best Picture Oscar contender, Dune: Part Two. From an awards standpoint, the slight sting of his breakout performance in Call Me By Your Name losing the Best Actor Oscar to Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour offers a pretty clean “make good” win this year.
Solid to strong as those are, Chalamet’s more unique narrative is his eagerness to participate in the strangest promotional opportunities for his film. While most contenders were at industry events or roundtables to corral votes, Chalamet made headlines in December as a guest picker on ESPN’s College GameDay. The Oscar nominee stunned the hosts and everyone else watching with his elite ball knowledge, lobbing off season-long stats to justify his picks of Jackson State University and Ohio University, among others. Chalamet’s performance at the desk made him an internet sensation, with some calling him the best guest picker of the season.
While Chalamet popping up on Saturday Night Live isn’t entirely unexpected, popping up as host and musical guest was. Instead of handing the singing duties off to someone else, the actor performed three of Bob Dylan’s songs. Even more remarkable was his choices. Instead of picking “Blowin’ in the Wind” (prominently featured in his film), he chose three more obscure songs: “Outlaw Blues,” “Three Angels,” and “Tomorrow Is a Long Time.” His picks were smart and deliberate, demonstrating a dedication to highlighting Dylan’s work, proof that he took Dylan seriously, and a desire to sidestep accusations that it was a mere gimmick. Keeping close to music, Chalamet also interviewed Kendrick Lamar ahead of his Super Bowl halftime performance.
Even Chalamet’s more traditional promotional duties had an offbeat flair. He recreated Bob Dylan’s infamous look at the 2003 Sundance Film Festival at the film’s New York premiere. It was stunning cosplay, complete with a beanie, scarf, leather coat, plaid shirt, and iconic swooping blonde bang. At the London premiere, Chalamet rode a Lime bike on the red carpet. (He also shared on Instagram that he was fined 65 pounds.) Instead of attending the Critics Choice Awards on February 7th, he wore a Baby Milo bag around his neck at A Complete Unknown’s Tokyo premiere.
So, what to make of this? First, it’s worth noting that what he’s doing is campaigning and promotion. Every appearance, wherever it is, is a pointed choice aimed at exposure and recognition. That said, there is a joie de vivre to these appearances that awards campaigns don’t typically have. (Ke Huy Quan is a notable exception.) Chalamet is having a blast with every campaign stop, and it’s been a blast to watch. It’s also a clever reinforcement of the current state of his career. With two blockbuster successes and a prestige project (also a hit) in 12 months, Chalamet has proven that he is central to Hollywood’s future.
His A Complete Unknown campaign feels youthful and fresh, and it wouldn’t be surprising if future contenders follow his model. For Oscar voters who want to put stock in Hollywood’s future, Chalamet is the safest, surest bet.
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice: The Principled Risk-Taker
Of this season’s Oscar nominees, Sebastian Stan has stood on the shakiest ground. The actor led two contending films this season: A Different Man and The Apprentice. A Different Man, about an actor with neurofibromatosis who undergoes an experimental treatment, was well-received but struggled to find footing amidst buzzier films. The Apprentice, about Donald Trump’s early days, nearly went undistributed in America amidst lawsuit threats until Briarcliff Entertainment intervened. The film also struggled at the box office. Meanwhile, Stan made headlines after revealing that he couldn’t participate in Variety’s Actors on Actors series because no actor’s publicist wanted to engage in a one-on-one conversation about Trump. (He would participate in the Los Angeles Times and The Hollywood Reporter roundtables.) Another wrinkle was the fact that he had two lead performances. The question was, which one would award voters go for?
At the beginning of the season, there was no clear consensus, with critics nominating him for either film. (Plenty of groups didn’t nominate him at all, hinting at potential vote splitting.) Despite those challenges, Stan carved out a space this season. He received two Golden Globe nominations for both performances, winning for A Different Man. While he missed Critics Choice and SAG nominations, BAFTA nominated him for The Apprentice, signaling that the Academy’s international branch might rally behind the film. Ultimately, Stan (and co-star Jeremy Strong) both received Oscar nominations for their performances.
So, what pushed him over the edge?
Apart from the international support, Stan has refused to back down from either of his challenging films. While most actors in his position might’ve gone into hiding after the US election, he pressed ahead with an unguarded message about Trump’s lack of fitness for office. (While presenting Best Documentary at the DGA Awards, Stan quipped that he had starred in a true crime documentary this season.) It was a brave and advantageous choice that garnered his peers’ admiration. He was equally bullish about A Different Man. In his Golden Globes speech, he openly challenged audiences’ discomfort with disability and disfigurement and encouraged curiosity and empathy. My interview with him last month was similarly guided by that call to action, with him declaring the creative language as a valuable conduit for those values that must be protected.
Our interview also revealed Stan’s intention in his role choices, seeking out films that challenge audiences and himself. The releases of The Apprentice and A Different Man in the same year lasered in on that intent, and his willingness to push the envelope to tell impactful, complex, and even culture-shifting stories. While audiences mostly know him as Bucky Barnes from the MCU, this has been a breakout moment for Stan. The season has positioned him as one of Hollywood’s most interesting and daring performers.
He has a very, perhaps insurmountably, steep hill to an Oscar win this year, especially against three Best Picture contenders. However, the combined power of international favor and admiration of his principles gives him a path. If not, this season assured that this likely won’t be his last time in contention.
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here: The Hometown Hero (Part Deux)
In 1999, Fernanda Montenegro became the first Brazilian Oscar nominee for her performance in Central Station. Although her performance swept the critics’ prizes, she lost the Oscar to Gwenyth Paltrow for Shakespeare in Love.
Twenty-five years later, her daughter, Fernanda Torres, is following the same path. This year, the actress and writer was nominated for her stunning, gutting performance in I’m Still Here. She plays Eunice Paiva, the wife of dissident politician Rubens Paiva, who was kidnapped and murdered by Brazil’s military dictatorship. Distributed by Sony Pictures Classics, I’m Still Here was another film with a lot of passion (especially from its home country) but with a lower profile compared to others. Torres was nominated for the Golden Globe but was up against several heavy hitters, including Angelina Jolie (Maria) and Nicole Kidman (Babygirl). If the HFPA were still running the Globes, Torres would’ve likely lost to them.
The HFPA doesn’t exist anymore, though, and the Golden Globes shocked everyone by awarding Torres. It was a seismic win. The Globes are the first major televised ceremony of the season (for better or worse). Winning a Globe offers valuable screen time and piques interest, especially for a film or performance voters might otherwise overlook. Sensing the surge, SPC quickly secured her written interviews and endearing appearances on Jimmy Kimmel Live and Live with Kelly and Mark. With the Oscar voting period extended by the wildfires, voters had the opportunity to see the film and responded in kind. Not only did voters nominate Torres for Best Actress and I’m Still Here for Best International Feature, but they nominated the film for Best Picture over season favorites like Sing Sing and A Real Pain.
Anyone who has been online for more than ten minutes knows how much Brazilian cinephiles (if not the whole country) are rooting for Torres. However, there is another play. Hollywood loves legacy and tradition; it is key to Isabella Rossellini’s campaign for Conclave. (Her mother is three-time Oscar winner Ingrid Bergman.) Unlike Rossellini, Torres wouldn’t be riding on the back of a winning legacy. On the contrary, she would be at the Dolby Theatre to possibly claim the award her mother lost 25 years ago. On top of I’m Still Here supporters, voters who rallied behind Central Station might be compelled to support Torres as an effort of delayed but deserved gratification. Torres’s win would be a multi-layered triumph of passion and perseverance: for herself and her searing work, her mother and her work, and the whole of Brazil.
That isn’t to say Torres’s path is easy. She missed nominations at three critical precursors: the Critics Choice, SAG, and BAFTA. (Stan, another vulnerable contender, at least has BAFTA on his belt.) Those are three crucial campaign stops that she’s missing, which could’ve built on her Golden Globes momentum. Those are also three campaign stops where either Demi Moore fortifies her frontrunner status or another contender emerges, making Best Actress a real race. (The next likeliest winner would be Madison, after Anora‘s wins at DGA, PGA, and the Critics Choice.) While those misses certainly add some weight to what might’ve been a runaway train of a campaign, I’m Still Here’s shock Best Picture nomination points to real passion for the film that will likely only grow with more screenings and wider theatrical releases.
Nothing is off the table in one of the most unpredictable awards seasons in recent memory. Torres, like Moore, Stan, and Chalamet, are close to the edge of glory. The question is, will their performances and narratives give that final push when the envelopes open?
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